Keeneland September Sale shatters records as yearling market surges 23.2% year-over-year, reflecting unprecedented industry momentum fueled by favorable economic conditions.
The American bloodstock market has reached extraordinary heights in 2024, with combined yearling sales exceeding $650 million — a staggering $122.8 million increase from last year’s figures. This 23.2% surge demonstrates exceptional market strength across all price points.
When including post-sale transactions, the overall market has climbed from $546.8 million to $673.3 million, with the average yearling now commanding $190,711 — a 15.9% increase from last year’s $164,570.
The luxury segment has experienced the most dramatic growth. Fasig-Tipton‘s Select Sale at Saratoga broke the $100 million barrier for the first time, featuring 25 seven-figure yearlings — more than double last year’s total. Keeneland responded with 56 million-dollar horses, up from 36 in 2023, purchased by a record 34 unique buyers.
These high-end transactions now represent 18.3% of the overall market, compared to just 8.9% in 2018. The 81 seven-figure yearlings sold this year have collectively brought $119.2 million.
Despite concerns about market polarization, Keeneland’s core indices showed healthy gains across all 12 sessions, with double-digit percentage increases in average prices. The buyback rate improved marginally to 22.3% from 22.7% last year, with post-sale transactions exceeding $20 million.
Stallion Market Shifts
Gun Runner made a remarkable statement at Keeneland by topping each of the first four sessions, signaling a potential changing of the guard in the stallion market.
While Into Mischief remains on track for his seventh consecutive sire championship, two younger stallions are gaining significant momentum. Gun Runner and Not This Time each achieved 17 seven-figure sales between Saratoga and Keeneland, outpacing Into Mischief’s 10.
The younger stallions are also closing the performance gap on the track. Not This Time and Gun Runner have produced 17 and 16 stakes winners respectively this year (from 265 and 252 starters), compared to Into Mischief’s 19 from 411 starters.
Veterans Tapit and Curlin, along with their sons Constitution and Good Magic, each contributed four million-dollar yearlings. Ghostzapper demonstrated his enduring value when his half-brother to Ruling Court sold for $1.2 million.
Justify continues to present a market anomaly — his European success hasn’t fully translated to American sales values, with a filly at Keeneland falling just short of adding to his $1.4 million colt at Saratoga.
The complete list of stallions with million-dollar yearlings between Saratoga and Keeneland reads: Gun Runner and Not This Time (17 each); Flightline and Into Mischief (10 each); Constitution, Curlin, Good Magic and Tapit (4 each); Life Is Good, Nyquist and Uncle Mo (2 each); Bolt d’Oro, Ghostzapper, Jackie’s Warrior, Justify and Mandaloun (1 each).
First-Crop Sires Show Promise
Flightline’s first yearlings have commanded prices consistent with his elite stud fee, reflecting market confidence in his potential to transmit his exceptional racing ability to his offspring.
Among the freshman sires, Corniche has emerged as a particularly promising prospect. His yearlings achieved a median of $150,000 — impressive returns for a stallion standing at just $15,000 this year, half his opening fee.
Corniche’s yearlings have built significantly on his weanling results, which had already established a solid median of $80,000. His market appeal is further demonstrated by the fact that 55 of his 62 offered yearlings found new homes.
While his pedigree features unconventional elements and his racing career was brief, the commercial reception to Corniche’s first crop suggests he may outperform expectations when his progeny begin racing next year.
The current market strength reflects multiple factors beyond tax advantages, including improved purse structures in certain racing jurisdictions that enhance the potential viability of middle-market investments. However, industry observers note that an increasing proportion of yearlings are being sired by unproven stallions, most of whom statistically will not succeed.
Despite these structural concerns, the unprecedented market momentum continues to benefit participants across all segments of the bloodstock industry.
