Preakness Stakes Field Analysis: Journalism Leads Contenders

Pimlico will host a competitive nine-horse field for Saturday’s GI Preakness Stakes, with Journalism installed as the 8-5 morning-line favorite following his strong Kentucky Derby performance.

The second jewel of the Triple Crown features several intriguing storylines, including the return of Derby runner-up Journalism and the presence of undefeated ‘TDN Rising Star’ Goal Oriented.

Top Contenders

1. Journalism (8-5)

Journalism enters as the clear standout after his second-place finish in the GI Kentucky Derby. The $825,000 Saratoga yearling purchase has established himself as the class of the field with consistent triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures and proven two-turn graded stakes success.

Trainer Michael McCarthy reports the Curlin colt has maintained his appetite and attitude since the Derby — positive indicators for a horse running back on just two weeks’ rest.

"He’s a happy horse," McCarthy said of his charge, who will again be ridden by Umberto Rispoli.

In the Derby, Journalism overcame minor crowding at the break and navigated traffic skillfully before launching a powerful move around the far turn. He seized the lead in mid-stretch before yielding to Sovereignty by 1½ lengths while earning a 102 Beyer.

The colt’s stalking style should suit a Preakness field that doesn’t lack for early speed. His main challenge may be recovering from two consecutive demanding races, having overcome significant trouble in the GI Santa Anita Derby prior to his Kentucky Derby effort.

2. Sandman (5-1)

The deep-closing Sandman gets a jockey change to John Velazquez after a troubled seventh-place finish in the sloppy Kentucky Derby. Trainer Mark Casse believes the $1.2 million OBS March purchase will benefit from a stronger rider and a less crowded field.

The Tapit colt has shown particular effectiveness in nine-horse fields — winning two of his last three starts in that scenario. His most impressive performances came in a December allowance win at Oaklawn and a second-place finish in the GIII Southwest Stakes despite a disastrous start.

Sandman’s GI Arkansas Derby victory came with an asterisk as he closed into a complete pace collapse. With nine career starts and a late-running style, he has the foundation to hit the board, though a win would require significant improvement.

3. Goal Oriented (7-2)

‘TDN Rising Star’ Goal Oriented brings an undefeated record and significant upside to the Preakness. The Bob Baffert trainee won an allowance race on the Derby undercard, and his rail draw suggests he’ll be sent for the lead.

The $425,000 Keeneland September yearling has paired 91 Beyers in his only two starts. While that’s below the Preakness par of 101, similar improvement isn’t unprecedented — last year’s Preakness winner National Treasure made a similar leap.

Goal Oriented has shown versatility, rallying from fifth in his debut sprint before displaying front-running ability in his two-turn debut. His maternal grandsire is 2005 Preakness winner Afleet Alex, adding intrigue to his distance capabilities.

Mid-Pack Threats

4. River Thames (8-1)

‘TDN Rising Star’ River Thames skipped the Derby despite qualifying, a decision by trainer Todd Pletcher that could prove advantageous. The New York-bred son of Maclean’s Music has been freshened since his third-place finish in the GI Blue Grass Stakes.

His standout performance came in the GII Fountain of Youth, where he was beaten just a neck by eventual Derby winner Sovereignty after taking command in the stretch. Pletcher has maintained the colt’s conditioning with three half-mile breezes since the Blue Grass.

5. American Promise (20-1)

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas will saddle his record 49th Preakness starter with American Promise. The 89-year-old Lukas has won the middle jewel seven times, including with front-running longshots in his two most recent victories.

The $750,000 Keeneland September yearling by Justify finished a distant 16th in the Derby after failing to sustain his early pace presence. His best performances include a 95 Beyer earned in both his Virginia Derby win and his muddy maiden victory at Oaklawn.

Longshot Considerations

6. Heart of Honor (15-1)

International shipper Heart of Honor brings solid Dubai form, having finished second in the G2 UAE Derby by just a nose. Trainer Jamie Osborne opted to bypass the Kentucky Derby despite having qualifying points, instead targeting the Preakness with this son of Honor A.P.

"We thought it was worth a shot," Osborne said. "If he runs okay in the Preakness, the aim is to hang on for another three weeks and go to Saratoga" for the Belmont Stakes.

The colt will be ridden by the trainer’s 23-year-old daughter, Saffie Osborne, who made history last year as the first female jockey to win at Meydan. This marks her first ride in America.

7. Clever Again (15-1)

Clever Again returns from a seven-week freshening after wiring the Hot Springs Stakes with an impressive 101 Beyer. Trainer Steve Asmussen expects the $500,000 Keeneland September yearling by American Pharoah to be prominently placed early.

"We expect him to break clean, with the other pace obviously to his inside," Asmussen said after the post draw.

8. Pay Billy (20-1)

Pay Billy earned his Preakness berth by winning the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel with a career-best 85 Beyer. The modestly priced son of Improbable ($38,000 FTKOCT, $60,000 OBSAPR) has shown steady improvement for trainer Mike Gorham.

"He’s a big, strong horse," Gorham said, noting the colt’s increasingly relaxed attitude.

9. Gosger (12-1)

Homebred Gosger brings a two-for-three record into the Preakness, including a victory in the GIII Lexington Stakes. The Nyquist colt has tactical versatility that could help him work out a trip from the outside post.

New jockey Luis Saez has a strong 19% win rate when teaming with trainer Brendan Walsh over the past five years.

Favorites have lost six consecutive Preakness runnings, with Justify in 2018 being the lone exception in the past nine years. Post time for the 149th Preakness Stakes is scheduled for 6:50 p.m. ET on Saturday.