Churchill Downs has assigned 2-year-old champion Citizen Bull (Into Mischief) the challenging rail position for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby, adding another obstacle to his Triple Crown quest.
Drawing post one in the Derby represents a significant disadvantage in the 20-horse field—a stark contrast to the achievement of qualifying among the elite 20 from a crop of 17,146 Thoroughbreds.
The rail position’s reputation as problematic stems from the chaotic first-turn dynamics unique to the Derby, where positioning often trumps raw talent.
Recent history suggests the rail draw might not doom Citizen Bull’s Triple Crown campaign entirely. In two of the past three years, horses who drew post one in the Derby went on to capture the Belmont Stakes after disappointing Churchill Downs performances.
Last year, rail-drawn Dornoch encountered early trouble, getting bumped and hemmed inside before regrouping to finish tenth. Trainer Danny Gargan skipped the Preakness, and Dornoch went on to win both the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga and the Haskell Stakes at 17-1 odds.
In 2022, Mo Donegal broke awkwardly from post one and settled at the back of the pack. Despite a fifth-place Derby finish, he rebounded to win the Belmont as the 5-2 favorite in what became his final career start before retirement.
Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) finished fifth from the rail in the 2023 Derby and fourth in that year’s Belmont. Though not a Belmont winner, he’s since developed into a world-class racehorse, most recently capturing the G1 Dubai World Cup.
Since the introduction of starting gates in 1930, horses breaking from post one have compiled an 8-5-5 record from 95 starts—an 8.4% win percentage with an 18.9% in-the-money ratio. The average finish position is eighth.
Ferdinand in 1986 remains the last Derby winner from the rail, prevailing in a 16-horse field after a masterful ride by 54-year-old Bill Shoemaker.
Other rail-drawn Derby winners since 1930 include Chateaugay (1963), Needles (1956), Hill Gail (1952), Citation (1948), Gallahadion (1940), Lawrin (1938) and War Admiral (1937). Five of these champions raced in fields of 10 or fewer horses, when post one was likely considered advantageous.
Despite the rail’s notorious reputation, posts two, three, and four have actually produced fewer winners. No horse has won from post two since Affirmed in 1978—a drought even longer than the rail’s 38-year winless streak.
This year, Neoequos (Neolithic), Final Gambit (Not This Time), and TDN Rising Star Rodriguez (Authentic) drew posts two, three, and four respectively.
Post five has been the most productive starting position with 10 winners from 95 editions—a 10.5% win rate and 23.2% in-the-money percentage. American Promise (Justify) landed this coveted spot for the 2024 Derby.
Post 10 ranks second with nine winners from 88 Derbies, boasting a 10.2% win rate and 29.5% in-the-money ratio. Grande (Curlin) drew this position this year.
Curiously, neighboring gates to these productive posts have performed poorly. Gate six has produced just two winners from 95 Derbies, while gate 11 is two-for-84. Admire Daytona (Jpn) (Drefong) and Flying Mohawk (Karakontie {Jpn}) drew these challenging positions.
Post 17 remains winless in 45 attempts—a statistic that now confronts Enter Sandman (Tapit).
Among posts with at least one victory, gate 14 endures the longest current drought, dating back to Carry Back in 1961. Tiztastic (Tiz the Law) drew this position for Saturday’s race.
The outermost posts—18, 19, and 20—have collectively produced just five winners from 87 starters. This year, these positions belong to Sovereignty (Into Mischief), Chunk of Gold (Preservationist), and Owen Almighty (Speightstown).
Post 20 has produced two notable winners: overwhelming favorite Big Brown in 2008 and 80-1 longshot Rich Strike, who drew in off the also-eligible list in 2022.
The remaining Derby contenders include Luxor Cafe (American Pharoah) in post seven, Journalism (Curlin) in post eight, Burnham Square (Liam’s Map) in post nine, TDN Rising Star East Avenue (Medaglia d’Oro) in post 12, Publisher (American Pharoah) in post 13, Render Judgment (Blame) in post 15, and Coal Battle (Coal Front) in post 16.
