California racing faces a significant challenge as the state’s Thoroughbred breeding industry continues to contract, threatening the foundation of its consolidated racing program.
Cal-breds have represented between 45% and 50% of all starters at Thoroughbred race meets since 2014. From the start of the Santa Anita winter meeting through mid-March, Cal-breds comprised approximately 47% of all individual starters in both open races and those restricted to northern trainers.
However, with last year’s foal crop now sitting at just below 1,000 amid a breeding industry that has been declining for two decades, California faces a projected shortage of homebred runners in coming years.
Modeling performed for the TDN using available data suggests California will see approximately 290 fewer Cal-bred runners competing between 2026 and 2028.
This could be a conservative estimate that doesn’t account for a possible larger-than-anticipated decline in mares bred in 2025 or a smaller-than-expected foal crop this year.
Industry stakeholders offered mixed responses when presented with these projections. Some declined to comment, while others suggested the shrinking Cal-bred numbers could mean further reduction in overall races to maintain field sizes.
“If anybody says that it’s not concerning or is not an issue is putting their heads in the sand,” said Scott Chaney, the CHRB’s executive director. “A logical question then is, ‘what is the extent of this impact?'”
By the Numbers
The calculations are based on historical DRF chart data, along with Jockey Club and CTBA foal crop and mares-bred statistics.
The 3-year-old and 4-year-old Cal-bred runners currently competing were foaled in 2021 and 2022, when the foal crops were 1,323 and 1,315 respectively. In 2023, the California foal crop dropped to 1,191. According to the CTBA, the 2024 foal crop currently stands at 983, though the organization expects the final number to approach 1,000.
The projections use several established trend lines:
- Approximately 73% of the annual Cal-bred foal crop that reach the races make a start in California
- Roughly 29% of the Cal-bred foal crop race as two-year-olds
- An 8.6% annual decrease in mares bred in California
These calculations suggest 82 fewer Cal-breds in 2026, 93 in 2027, and 115 in 2028 — a combined loss of 290 runners over three years.
This represents about 5% of the overall Cal-bred starter population each year, a figure that may not seem insurmountable if industry leaders view the current program as a baseline for growth.
Breeding Industry Outlook
Tom Clark, owner of Rancho San Miguel and a mainstay of the state breeding industry, initially predicted a one-third drop-off in mares bred this year but now expects a roughly 25% decline. Clark recently put Rancho San Miguel on the market, though he’s not seeking to liquidate his stock but rather find someone with “vision and passion” to assume operations.
CTBA president Doug Burge indicated he’s receiving mixed reports about breeding activity.
“I’m getting some of the bigger farms telling me they’re breeding the same. And then I’ve got some farms, particularly in the north, telling me they’re down,” Burge said.
If current trend lines continue, TDN calculations project the foal crop could fall to 607 by 2030 — a figure Burge disputes.
“That’s low. We’re not going to get that low. If we get that low, I mean, there won’t be…” Burge said, leaving the thought unfinished.
Burge believes the baseline threshold for a sustainable Cal-bred foal crop is between 850 and 950, adding that “we would stop the bleeding” before dropping below 850.
Despite acknowledging a likely drop in mares bred this year, Burge expressed optimism that California’s long-declining foal crop will plateau beginning next year. He cited several factors supporting this view, including stable numbers of mares foaling in California bred to non-California stallions and increased breeder and stallion awards between 2023 and 2024.
“The Cal-bred incentive program is still very strong,” Burge emphasized.
Strategic Responses
In March 2024, former TSG executive Craig Fravel suggested in a letter to the CHRB that a consolidated program in Southern California could include a fourth day of weekly racing at Santa Anita. However, the projected Cal-bred numbers make this unlikely without a significant influx of out-of-state horses.
Bill Nader, TOC president and CEO, highlighted recent positive trends from the new consolidated model, including increases in handle, field size, and wagering both in-state and beyond. These improvements come despite approximately 40% fewer races being carded annually compared to last year.
“Everything is trending positively. So, for the first time in a long time, there’s a bit of optimism,” said Nader, who mentioned the possibility of new tax incentives for breeders and owners.
CHRB executive director Chaney emphasized that the industry’s work is far from complete.
“If folks think, ‘oh, there’s consolidation, purses are up in California—our work here is done,’ that is a complete misunderstanding of the situation,” said Chaney, describing California racing’s biggest challenge as “purses, purses, and purses.”
Recent efforts to install Historic Horse Racing machines at Santa Anita have been unsuccessful. Other potential solutions include direct government supplements similar to those enacted in New York and Maryland.
“I think something will happen because it has to,” Chaney said regarding purse supplements. “There is no other choice for the horse racing industry here.”
Industry Response
While Santa Anita and Los Alamitos declined to comment on the projected Cal-bred numbers, the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club provided a brief statement.
“Maintaining a viable state breeding program over the longer term is crucially important as Del Mar and other stakeholders work through the new single-circuit structure here and we are committed to providing opportunities and incentives for California-breds,” the DMTC wrote.
CTT executive director Alan Balch offered a more critical assessment.
“There’s an old quote I’ve always believed in: ‘the pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails,'” wrote Balch.
“In California, racing’s sails have needed very serious adjusting for a long, long time: it’s called strategic planning. For at least 15 years, the tracks, breeders, owners, and trainers, haven’t had a single organized, serious meeting to address the threats which have been clearly visible for over 25 years.”
Balch emphasized the need for reliable, objective information to develop successful industry strategy, noting that CTT and Del Mar have jointly funded detailed annual data collection for at least 15 years.
“Only with an urgent, immediate, serious commitment to joint strategic planning—involving how to persuade the State of California to help reverse the present perils to its agricultural economy—could we hope to mitigate what we’re all facing,” Balch concluded.
